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Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Wolverines: Preview, Predictions and Prognostications

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When: Sat. Oct 22; 3:30pm ET
Where: Ann Arbor, Mich.; Michigan Stadium (107,601)
TV: BTN
All-Time Series: Michigan Leads 69-23-2
Last Meeting: Michigan Won 45-0 (2012)
Line: Michigan (-35.5)

What could possibly happen when Michigan meets the second-worst team in the Big Ten? After all, the last time we saw the Wolverines they were still seen scoring points in Piscataway.

However, Illinois can actually score points on offense and have stopped teams from scoring (if you call Rutgers scoring 7 points a victory for the Illini defense).

While on paper this game may not seem appetizing and a likely blow out, there are factors that make it worth taking a second look. So, let us explore perhaps the most lopsided game of the weekend on paper.

 

1 Burning Question: How Focused Will Michigan Be for this Game?

Even the best of teams can get caught looking backward or looking forward. In the case of the Wolverines, the team must find a way to overcome the high of a 78-point whopping of Rutgers two weeks ago.

That same team must also not get caught looking ahead of the Illini, who lost to Purdue of all teams, and looking towards a big in-state matchup with Michigan State in East Lansing last week. Michigan is also a team coming off a bye week, one in which its head coach was having fun at high schools all over America and at Ruth’s Chris in Ann Arbor too.

Of course, Harbaugh is known as a master of motivation and a master at getting his teams to focus on the task at hand. But, given all that has gone on the task here may be getting his team (and himself) not to buy in to the hype and the press around them.

Can this team focus on the task at hand and take care of business handily as expected?

2 Key Stats:

— 10. That is the number of games Illinois have won at Michigan Stadium All-Time. Most teams have historically struggled at Michigan Stadium, largely because the Wolverines have been a historically great football program. However, I point this out because expecting the gulf between these two teams on the field to evaporate is one thing and expecting Illinois to pull of a historically significant win is a totally different thing.

—6. That is the number of interceptions for both the Michigan Wolverines and Illinois Fighting Illini defenses in 2016. It also happens to be one more than the number of touchdowns both have allowed this season. Michigan is likely to see Wes Lunt returning from injury this week and he can whip the ball around the field with ease. He is also not exactly prone to throwing interceptions, as he has six touchdowns to just one interception on the season. If Michigan can get Lunt to turn the ball over, this one is likely over quickly. Same if the Illini can get the statistically great Wilton Speight to turn the ball over.

3 Key Players:

West Lunt, Illinois QB: Welcome back from the sidelines, your mission is to take on one of the best defenses in the country. Good luck with that. However, the simple fact is that if the Illini are going to win this game it is likely that they are going to have to do it on the arm of Lunt at some point in time. Having him back should help open things up, but the wide receivers and he need to be on the same page or this could get ugly.

De’Veon Smith, Michigan RB: Michigan has the second-best rushing attack in the Big Ten according to the numbers, but its beauty is in the multiple running backs it can throw at teams. Smith leads the team with just 61 attempts on the season, and four running backs average seven or more carries per game. However, it would be great to see just one back carry the load and that back needs to be Smith. Of the four main backs, Smith’s 5.5 yards per carry average

Kenyon Jackson, Illinois DT: Being stout up front has largely been a problem for past and present Illini defenses. One answer that has emerged in 2016 is freshman Kenyon Jackson. He’s started each of the last two games and has been very productive in the middle of the defense. Seven of his nine tackles on the season have come in the last three games alone. That kind of production is a welcome sight up front, and with Michigan’s impressive rushing offense, it could be helpful to hear his name being called multiple times in this game as well.

4 Staff Predictions:

Andy: Michigan 52-7
Dave: Michigan 42-7
Phil H.: Michigan 42-13
Philip R-R.: Michigan 52-14

Andy Coppens is the Founder and Publisher of Talking10. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) and has been covering college sports in some capacity since 2008. You can follow him on Twitter @AndyOnFootball

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Illini Football

Illinois Fighting Illini 2018 Season Review: The good, the bad and the ugly

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Once again it is December and the Illinois Fighting Illini football team is at home resting without a bowl game to prepare for. Such is the case for a team that went 4-8. 

It was the third straight year that Lovie Smith’s team didn’t make a bowl game and the fourth season in a row overall without a bowl game.

But, that didn’t deter AD Josh Whitman from investing more in Smith’s future. After the season finale, Whitman announced a two-year extension to Smith’s contract. 

So, how did Whitman get to that decision without being laughed out of the room? What was the good, the bad and the ugly? 

Let’s look back at the season that was. 

The Good

Hiring Rod Smith as offensive coordinator was a good, if not great move by Smith. His offense fit the players who were in the system like a glove and the offense sprung on to the scene as a dangerous group for opponents to worry about. 

Illinois’ scoring averaged just 11 points, they were second in the Big Ten in rushing yards behind only Wisconsin and senior quarterback A.J. Bush finally showcased what many thought he would out of high school. 

Junior running back Reggie Corbin was scary good this season, averaging 90.4 yards per game and rushing for over 1,000 yards on the season. Add in Mike Epstein’s 411 yards in just 7 games and Bush’s 733 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground and you have a blueprint for future success for Smith’s offense. 

Of course, Bush leaving after this season will change things a bit, but the overall blueprint was successful in its first year and that can really help transform a program. 

The Bad

For all the success the offense had on the stat sheet, one piece of news wasn’t good and that was Illinois inability to extend drives consistently on offense. 

The Illini ranked 12th in the Big Ten in third down conversion rate. On the season they converted at just a 34.5 percent rate. 

Amazingly, it is the best mark of any team under Lovie Smith, but still far below an acceptable rate if you want to win more football games than you lose. 

Given Illinois overall offensive improvement this may seem like nitpicking, but this is the next step this team needs to take on the field to be even more successful and to help that defense.

The Ugly

How do you make the massive offensive jump Illinois did and still miss a bowl game? You have one of the worst defenses in the country, that’s how. 

Illinois gave up an average of 39.4 points per game, which was dead last in the Big Ten and 124th out of 130 in the country. Further down the numbers showed a defense that was last in the B1G in rushing, total defense (508.3) and 13th in passing defense. 

It was brutal watching this defense in 2018, so much so that Hardy Nickerson decided to resign for health reasons after allowing 63 points and 465 yards rushing in a 30-point loss to Maryland. 

The defense gave up 30-plus points in seven of 12 games on the year, leading to losses in six of those games. 

Smith took over the play calling for this defense after Nickerson’s departure, but things didn’t get much better. That indicates there’s a problem with the scheme, the players being recruited or both. 

Clearly this offseason must be focused on finding a coach and set of players ready to step up to the plate. After all, it will be year three in the defense for a lot of players who got major reps in 2017, let alone this past season. 

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Illini Football

Whitman doubles down on Lovie Smith as Illini HC

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A 4-8 season for the Illinois Fighting Illini was capped off by a disappointing loss to in-state rival Northwestern. For many people it signaled what could be the end of the Lovie Smith era in Champaign. 

On Sunday the speculation came to a quick end, as AD Josh Whitman did the unexpected. Rather than announcing Smith would be let go just three years in to his tenure, Whitman doubled down on him with a two-year contract extension. 

Smith will remain in Champaign through the 2023 season, extending the original six-year deal by another two years.

“This extension demonstrates my belief in Lovie Smith, his staff, and the plan they have for the future success of Illinois Football,” said Whitman. “I have studied our program extensively, and I see steady progress, both in the development of our current players and the talent we are adding to our roster. To date, we have remained one of the youngest teams in college football, with only nine seniors and nearly 80 freshmen and sophomores. As our players grow in strength, skill, and experience, more wins will follow.”

It was a surprising decision from the outside, because the numbers over the last three years have been brutal.  

Whitman is aware that 4-8 seasons are not what anyone is hoping for. He also pointed out correctly that the youth movement simply needs more time to work itself through the system. 

In a college football era that is increasingly impatient, Whitman is doing the rare thing and allowing a coach to rebuild the program from the bottom up before judging it. 

“We recognize that our work is far from finished, with improvement needed in every phase of our program’s development, but our plan is sound and our resolve is stronger than ever,” Whitman continued in his press release. “As I have said on many occasions, stability and continuity are key to building a foundation that will yield long-term success.

“With the opening of our new facility next summer, and the continued efforts of our staff and student-athletes, the success we all covet is within reach. I applaud Coach Smith, his staff, and our team for their commitment and steady progress, and I stand ready, as we all should, to help them in whatever way possible to continue building upon their momentum.”

For Smith and his Illini program, that watershed mark will be in year five, not year three. 

So, how will Lovie Smith repay this loyalty? It starts by identifying the good and bad. We’ll start with the bad. 

Chief amongst the problems for the Illini? Try the defensive side of the ball. 

During the nearly three-year tenure of defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson, the Illini defense never turned a positive corner. 

Year one was understandable, given the crazy offseason that led to Lovie Smith’s late hire and thus late installation of anything and everything. 

Year two saw the Illini basically say “screw it” on both sides of the ball and a youth movement was afoot. 

Year three? Well, it was the final straw as Nickerson left the program following a dreadful performance against Maryland in a 63-33 loss in College Park. He sited health concerns in the abrupt leave he took, while Smith had made it clear following the loss that Nickerson wasn’t going to be fired and no decisions on any staff would be made until the offseason. 

Smith must find a way to get more out of this group, because even Nickerson’s absence did little to turn things around in-season. He took over the play-calling duties over the final four games and Illinois still gave up an average of 43.0 points per game. 

What then saved Smith’s job? It could have been his hire of offensive coordinator Rod Smith. 

Illinois offensive output was amazing considering where this team was just one year ago. 

They even survived issues at quarterback and injuries around the pass and run game throughout the year. After averaging 15.4 points per game in 2017, the Illini upped their scoring over 10 points per game to 26.0. 

It was only good enough for 11th in the league, but it was a vast improvement in just one season’s time. Illinois scored fewer than 20 points in just four games this season, while it managed to top 20 points in just four games in 2017. 

Senior A.J. Bush gave the Illini their best look at QB, while also allowing freshman M.J. Rivers to get major experience in Smith’s offense going forward. 

Junior running back Reggie Corbin was a breath of fresh air in Smith’s attack. He topped the 1,000-yard mark on just 128 carries, averaging a sick 8.5 yards per carry. It was the first 1,000-yard rushing season by an Illini running back in eight years. 

Add in a healthy Mike Epstein and the Illini had the pieces it needed to be productive on offense. 

It showed as the run game improved by nearly 140 yards per game and averaged a healthy 243 yards per game — a mark that was only topped by Wisconsin within the Big Ten. 

Whitman clearly saw the offensive improvement and believed there was more where that came from. He penned a letter to fans alluding to as much. 

“No one is satisfied with our season, least of all those of us directly involved in the day-to-day work of Illinois Football,” said Whitman. “We endured several lopsided losses and expected to win more games. After studying the season, however, there were undoubtedly signs of progress.”

Now it is on Smith to make his boss look smart in the face of three years of losing. 

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Predicting the 2018 Illinois Fighting Illini season game-by-game

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We’re nearing game week and that means it is time to gather all the intel possible and make the best decisions possible…because it’s time to put our money where our mouths are. 

Yes, the annual tradition of Illinois Fighting Illini season predictions is back. Yes, we’re also going to break down the season in game-by-game fashion. 

No, you won’t see it in the written form. Instead, we’re going 21st century and giving you our publisher, Andrew Coppens, thoughts in video format. 

The Illini went first (no coincidence to alphabetical order), so you can follow along by subscribing to our YouTube channel as well. 

Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Also don’t forget to join in the conversation below and let us know your thoughts on the season and your predictions too! 

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Illini Football

Illini look to fresh jerseys to help reboot football program

Illinois reaches to its successful past in hopes of sparking interest in struggling football program of today. It means new uniforms for the football program.

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Nothing says trying to shed a bad image like rebooting your jersey and helmet looks. When you’re the Illinois Fighting Illini and you’ve compiled a whopping 5-19 overall record and just two Big Ten wins in the last two years, a reboot is probably a good idea.

On Friday morning, the Illini announced exactly that, keeping the school colors and even the Gray Ghost uniforms they have worn to pay homage to the Galloping Ghost himself, Harold “Red” Grange. The new uniforms feature a much simpler look and a more defined block “I” on the v of the neck.

For you old-timers out there, these uniforms are likely to look very familiar to you. That’s because they harken back to the Illini glory days of the Dick Butkus era in the 1960’s.

One of the biggest additions to the uniform combinations is that of a re-designed orange helmet. Gone is the metallic look, replaced by a matted finish and a color that more accurately fits the uniform color as well.

Illinois will begin wearing the new gear for the home opener on Sept. 1 against Kent State and of course will begin to be available for purchase (blue only apparently) this fall as well.

As for the design, I like the simplified look and feel of the jersey. Illinois has a color scheme that stands out in the Big Ten, so why try to hide it. Instead, they are embracing history and moving forward to hopefully more success.

With all the momentum off the field, hopefully Love Smith and crew can deliver some of that same momentum on the field. We’ll have an idea about that when the Illini hold an open practice tomorrow, April 7.

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